Mild price gains in gold, silver just ahead of FOMC conclusion

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are posting modest, corrective price advances in early U.S. trading Wednesday, following this week’s sharp losses. Many markets are in pause modes ahead of this afternoon’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting. June gold was last up $2.80 at $2,305.70. July silver was last up $0.101 at $26.755.

The highly anticipated Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ends this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. No changes in monetary policy are expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser will be very closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Recent warmer U.S. inflation data has prompted most traders and analysts to dial back their timelines on any interest rate cuts from the Fed, if they come at all this year. There is a small camp of Fed watchers that think the next interest rate move by the Fed will be to hike. Most expect Powell to remain hawkish on U.S. monetary policy in his remarks today. Markets could become more active this afternoon. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Fed has patience to let high rates work.”

On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $80.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.69%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the job openings and labor (JOLTS) report, domestic auto industry sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

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Technically, the gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now starting to trend down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at $2,364.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,200.00. First resistance is seen at $2,325.00 and then at $2,350.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,291.70 and then at $2,275.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

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The silver bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now trending down. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at $28.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $25.00. First resistance is seen at $27.00 and then at $27.50. Next support is seen at $26.50 and then at $26.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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