Gold price up a bit as FOMC meeting on deck

Gold market analysis for July 29 - key intra-day price entry levels for active traders

Bitcoin July 29 daily chart alert - Bulls lose some steam as trading turns sideways

Wall Street thrives while Main Street struggles: Financial Stress Index soars to pandemic-era levels

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio urges 15% allocation in gold or Bitcoin, says world on the verge of an economic heart attack

Trade developments drive dollar strength and gold weakness

Gold SWOT: Newmont flexes its gold muscle

Wall Street bets on gold consolidation or correction, Main Street remains bullish as Fed rate decision and major data loom

Crypto SWOT: BNY Mellon and Goldman Sachs are using blockchain to track money market fund ownership

Gold and silver are losing momentum ahead of the Fed decision: Can disappointing jobs data save them?

Gold is a game of inches, and patience

China’s gold consumption drops 3.5% in H1, jewelry sales fall while bar and coin demand surges - China Gold Association

STOCKHOLM, July 29 (Reuters) - U.S. and Chinese officials began a second day of talks in Stockholm on Tuesday to resolve longstanding economic disputes and step back from an escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies.The meetings may not yield immediate large breakthroughs but the two sides could agree to another 90-day extension of a tariff truce struck in mid-May. It may also pave the way for a potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later in the year, though Trump on Tuesday denied going out of his way to seek one.The delegations met for more than five hours on Monday at Rosenbad, the Swedish prime minister's office in central Stockholm. Neither side made statements after the first day of talks.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was seen arriving at Rosenbad on Tuesday morning after a separate meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. China's Vice Premier He Lifeng also arrived at the venue.China is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with Trump's administration, after reaching preliminary deals in May and June to end weeks of escalating tit-for-tat tariffs and a cut-off of rare earth minerals.Without an agreement, global supply chains could face renewed turmoil from U.S. duties snapping back to triple-digit levels that would amount to a bilateral trade embargo.The Stockholm talks follow Trump's biggest trade deal yet with the European Union on Sunday for a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the United States, and a deal with Japan.That agreement has brought a measure of relief to the EU but also frustration and anger, with France denouncing the deal as a "submission" and Germany, Europe's largest economy, also warning of "significant" damage.China can exercise a degree of leverage with its grip on the global market for rare earths and magnets, used in everything from military hardware to car windshield wiper motors, analysts say.Unlike the EU, it also does not rely on the United States for security ties and can let trade talks play out for several more months, Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, told Reuters."China is well aware of its strong negotiating position, as could clearly be seen in the temporary escalation observed in April," he said."But over Europe always hangs the Damocles sword of the U.S. withdrawing its security guarantee, and that is why the EU did not escalate the situation like China did."TRUMP ON XI MEETINGThe Financial Times reported on Monday that the United States had paused curbs on tech exports to China to avoid disrupting trade talks with Beijing and support Trump's efforts to secure a meeting with Xi this year.Trump pushed back against suggestions he was seeking a meeting with Xi. "This is not correct, I am not SEEKING anything! I may go to China, but it would only be at the invitation of President Xi, which has been extended. Otherwise, no interest!" he wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday.Previous U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva and London in May and June focused on bringing U.S. and Chinese retaliatory tariffs down from triple-digit levels and restoring the flow of rare earth minerals halted by China and Nvidia's (NVDA.O), H20 AI chips, and other goods halted by the United States.Among broader economic issues, Washington complains that China's state-led, export-driven model is flooding world markets with cheap goods, while Beijing says U.S. national security export controls on tech goods seek to stunt Chinese growth.Bessent has already flagged a deadline extension and has said he wants China to rebalance its economy away from exports to more domestic consumption -- a decades-long goal for U.S. policymakers.Reporting by David Lawder, Greta Rosen Fondahn, Maria Martinez, Janis Laizans and Marie Mannes in Stockholm; additional reporting by Ethan Wang, Liz Lee, Yukun Zhang, Ryan Woo in Beijing, Terje Solsvik and Gwladys Fouche in Oslo; Writing by Matthias Williams; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise

US, China resume talks in Stockholm to ease tariff hostilities

July 29 (Reuters) - S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq futures ticked higher on Tuesday as investors assessed earnings reports from some of the top U.S. companies, while Dow futures lost some steam following a gloomy outlook from heavyweight UnitedHealth.At 06:50 a.m. ET, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 17.75 points, or 0.28%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 110.75 points, or 0.47%.The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here.Dow E-minis rose 0.04%, but the gains were capped as healthcare conglomerate UnitedHealth (UNH.N), dropped 4.7% in premarket trading following a disappointing profit forecast.Meanwhile, out of 168 S&amp;P 500 companies that have reported, nearly 80% have beaten earnings expectations, according to Friday's LSEG data. But caution lingers, as some of Wall Street's giants feel the sting of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.United Parcel Service (UPS.N), became the latest victim of the tariffs, falling 4% after the delivery company reported lower-than-expected second-quarter profit.On Monday, the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq scored fresh record closes amid volatile trading, buoyed by a U.S.-EU trade deal that halved tariffs to 15% and stoked hopes of further global agreements ahead of Trump's looming August 1 deadline.The President has also floated a potential "world tariff" of 15-20% for non-negotiating countries.U.S. and Chinese officials on Tuesday kicked off a second day of high-stakes talks in Stockholm, aiming to cool tensions and avert a deepening trade war between the world's two largest economies. Negotiators are eyeing a possible 90-day extension to the fragile tariff truce brokered in May.Earnings from tech heavyweights Meta (META.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), and Apple (AAPL.O), are scheduled for later this week, which could test Wall Street's record run."The easiest gains (on Wall St) have now happened, and any further rise is likely to happen much more slowly," said Thomas Mathews, head of Markets at Capital Economics."The narrowness of the rally means it may depend especially heavily on "big tech" profit results continuing to paint a positive picture."Spotify (SPOT.N), tumbled 6.5% after the company forecast third-quarter profit below estimates.The U.S. central bank is set to begin its two-day policy meeting later in the day. While the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, traders will closely analyze policymakers' remarks to gauge the timing of future moves.According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 61.7% chance of a rate cut in September.The meetings come amid the White House's campaign on the central bank to lower borrowing costs, including Trump's persistent criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and occasional suggestions to remove him from his position.Investors are now focused on the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and consumer confidence reports for more clues on the U.S. economy, which continues to show signs of labor market strength—even as some inflationary pressures from tariffs begin to surface.Analysts urge patience, as they await more data before sounding any alarms.Among other earnings-related moves, Cadence Design (CDNS.O), jumped 7.7% in premarket trading after the chip design software provider raised its annual sales and profit forecast.Reporting by Nikhil Sharma and Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli

S&P, Nasdaq futures edge up amid earnings, UnitedHealth pressures Dow

SINGAPORE, July 29 (Reuters) - The euro struggled to recoup its steep losses on Tuesday as investors sobered up to the fact that terms of the trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union favoured the former and hardly lifted the economic outlook of the bloc.France, on Monday, called the framework trade agreement a "dark day" for Europe, saying the bloc had caved in to U.S. President Donald Trump with an unbalanced deal that slapped a headline 15% tariff on EU goods. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his economy would suffer "significant" damage due to the agreed tariffs.The euro slid 1.3% in the previous session, its sharpest one-day percentage fall in over two months, on worries about growth and as euro-area government bond yields fell.The common currency failed to recoup its losses and last traded 0.02% lower at $1.1584."It hasn't taken long for markets to conclude that this relatively good news is still, in absolute terms, bad news as far as the near term implications for euro zone growth are concerned," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank."The deal has been roundly condemned by France while others - including German Chancellor Merz - are playing up the negative consequences for exporters, and with that, economic growth."The slide in the euro in turn boosted the dollar, which jumped 1% against a basket of currencies overnight. Illustration shows Euro and U.S. dollarEuro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken May 4, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tabThe dollar held on to gains on Tuesday and knocked sterling to a two-month low of $1.3338. The yen edged 0.2% higher to 148.22 per dollar.The dollar index steadied at 98.66."While the U.S. dollar's strength ... may reflect the perception that the new U.S.-EU deal is lopsided in favour of the U.S., the U.S. dollar's strength may also reflect a feeling that the U.S. is re-engaging with the EU and with its major allies," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.Still, Trump said on Monday most trading partners that do not negotiate separate trade deals would soon face tariffs of 15% to 20% on their exports to the United States, well above the broad 10% tariff he set in April.Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose 0.04% to $0.6524, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.5970.The onshore yuan &lt;CNY=CFXS&gt; touched a one-week low of 7.1794 per dollar, with investors awaiting the outcome of trade talks between Washington and Beijing.Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials met in Stockholm on Monday for more than five hours of talks aimed at resolving long-standing economic disputes at the centre of a trade war between the world's top two economies, seeking to extend a truce by three months.Apart from trade negotiations, investors' focus this week is also on rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Both central banks are expected to stand pat on rates, but traders will watch subsequent comments to gauge the timing of their next moves.Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Kim Coghill

Euro struggles after reality check on US-EU trade deal

LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - Wall Street futures pointed to a buoyant open on Tuesday ahead of earnings reports from a number of companies and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting that starts later in the day.S&amp;P 500 futures ticked up 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%, riding on hopes for upbeat results from mega caps this week that include Apple (AAPL.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), and Amazon (AMZN.O).The dollar index climbed 0.4% to 98.951 after the rush out of short dollar positions lifted it 1% overnight, while it eased a one-week high on the yen to stand at 148.69 .Yields on 10-year Treasuries inched up 3 basis points to 4.392%, having crept higher on Monday as markets braced for another steady decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.Futures imply a 97% chance the Fed would keep rates at 4.25%-4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday and reiterate concerns that tariffs will push inflation higher in the short term.Analysts also assume one, or maybe two, Fed officials will dissent in favour of a cut and supporting wagers for a move in September.The odds could change depending on a slew of U.S. data this week including gross domestic product for the second quarter, where growth is expected to rebound to an annualised 2.4%, after a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter.Figures on job openings are due later on Tuesday that will help refine forecasts for the crucial payrolls report on Friday."The equity rally has narrowed, valuations are stretched and market internals are flashing caution, and consumer data -particularly around housing and retail - show signs of fatigue," said Bruno Schneller, managing director at Erlen Capital Management, Zurich."This is the start of a 'show-me' phase - for both policymakers and corporates. Markets will demand confirmation: from earnings, from macro, and from the Fed," Erlen added.Canada's central bank also convenes on Wednesday and again is widely expected to hold rates at 2.75%.TARIFF ECHOESU.S. equity moves follow record closing highs for the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq on Monday in volatile trading after the U.S. struck a trade agreement with the European Union, while the Dow remained just about 200 points short of an all-time high.The U.S.-EU trade deal, announced on Sunday, halved threatened 30% U.S. tariffs on EU imports to 15% and bolstered expectations that more such agreements will follow ahead of President Donald Trump's looming August 1 deadline.Trump also flagged a "world tariff" rate of 15%-20% on all trading partners that were not negotiating a deal, among the highest rates since the Great Depression of the 1930s."While the worst-case scenario was averted, the implied EU tariff increase from 1% in January is a significant tax increase on EU exports," wrote economists from JPMorgan in a note."This is a very big shock that unwinds a century of U.S. leadership in global free trade," they said. "While we no longer see a U.S. recession as our baseline from this shock, the risk is still elevated at 40%."The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1543 , after retreating 1.3% overnight in its largest drop since mid-May.European shares recovered after Monday's sell-off. Europe's broad STOXX 600 (.STOXX), was up 0.6%, helped by some positive reactions to quarterly earnings. French (.FCHI), and German (.GDAXI), stock indexes rose over 1%.Novo Nordisk, one of Europe's biggest companies by market cap, named Maziar Mike Doustdar as its new chief executive after the abrupt removal of its previous CEO in May. Shares in the company were down as much as 29.8% by 1149 GMT, wiping off over 80 billion euros in market cap at one point.An air of caution saw MSCI's broadest index of world shares (.MIWD00000PUS), tick down about 0.2% after China stocks ended higher on Tuesday as a new round of Sino-U.S. trade talks continued, while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.8% (.N225).A further risk to world growth came from a sudden spike in oil prices after Trump threatened a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face tougher sanctions on oil exports.In commodity markets, prices for copper and iron ore were under pressure while gold was roughly flat at $3,316 an ounce .Brent was about 20 cents higher at $70.22 a barrel, while U.S. crude up 17 cents to $66.90.Editing by Sam Holmes, Bernadette Baum and Mark Heinrich

Shares mixed, euro dips as tariff costs counted

LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - The pound fell to a 10-week low against a stronger dollar on Tuesday, while staying just off a two-year low against the euro, as markets continue to digest the announcement of the trade deal between the European Union and the United States.The pound was last a touch higher against the dollar at $1.33570, but had earlier fallen to $1.3316, its lowest level since May 23. The dollar was broadly stronger on Tuesday, continuing a rally after Sunday's news that the United States and the EU struck a framework trade pact, the latest in a flurry of deals to avert a global trade war. Investors are also looking ahead to a U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meeting this week. The euro slid 0.1% against the pound to 86.71 pence, coming off a two-year high of 87.44 hit on Monday when the euro fell 0.78% against sterling , its largest one-day drop since mid-April."That reflected positioning," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, of Monday's fall in euro/sterling.Money markets show that traders believe the European Central Bank is probably closer to the end of its rate-cutting cycle than the Bank of England, which would favour the euro over sterling. In addition, the fiscal outlook in the euro zone appears healthier than that of the UK, where the government may be forced to raise taxes or borrow more this year."Those two opposing stories have made euro/sterling quite a popular trade, and part of that unwound in a bit of hurry yesterday," said Turner.The fact that Britain secured a deal for a 10% tariff compared with the EU's deal for a 15% rate could be giving sterling a boost against the euro, he said.A survey on Tuesday showed British shop prices rose by the most in more than a year in the 12 months to July and food prices grew more strongly, adding to other inflation signals and underscores the BoE's interest rate dilemma.Last week soft British retail sales and business activity data weighed on the pound.Elsewhere, data showed British lenders approved more mortgages than expected last month, adding to signs that the housing market has recovered from a dip after the expiry of a tax break for home buyers, and consumers also upped their borrowing, data showed on Tuesday."Overall, today’s money and credit data give a tentative sign of consumer spending picking up a little, and of business sentiment improving, however, growth will still be weak in Q2. For now, the MPC is likely to focus on that weaker growth outlook, meaning a rate cut in August is the odds-on bet," said Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK.Reporting by Lucy Raitano; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Sharon Singleton

Pound at 10-week low against dollar after US-EU trade deal

July 29 (Reuters) - A U.S. senator's recent push to strip the Federal Reserve of a key aspect of how it controls interest rates and the battle over who will succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell point to a future where some of the tools policymakers use to influence the economy come under greater scrutiny.There's no sense of imminent changes in the Fed's monetary policy mechanics. But that may not always be the case, especially as President Donald Trump, a persistent critic of the central bank who wants it to reduce interest rates, prepares to name a successor for Powell, whose term expires next May. The first sign of shifting ground came from Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who last month pushed to end interest payments paid by the Fed on bank reserves parked at the central bank. Ending this practice was also cited, among other back-to-basics proposals, in the influential Project 2025 effort that has helped drive some of Trump's agenda since he returned to power in January.Cruz's effort appears to have gained little traction, but success would upend how the Fed manages interest rates and have major implications for the central bank's large bond holdings.Meanwhile, how the Fed uses bond purchases and its balance sheet to stimulate or restrain the economy is also getting attention. It has been shedding bonds since 2022, but at least one possible Powell successor wants an even more aggressive drawdown motivated by a novel understanding of how the balance sheet affects the economy. TOOL TROUBLEThe Fed began paying interest on bank reserves during the global financial crisis in 2008. With its benchmark interest rate near zero and the financial system flush with cash from the central bank's bond purchases, this move granted the same control over rates the Fed had when bank reserves were much less abundant.Over time the Fed built out this system and formalized, opens new tab it in 2019. Officials have shown no desire to go back to the pre-crisis system."The current regime has a number of positive attributes that people I don't think fully appreciate," said William Dudley, a former head of the New York Fed who also managed the implementation of monetary policy when the new system was created. "It makes monetary policy execution really easy" and saves the Fed from active intervention in markets to manage reserve levels.The system, however, has been dogged by criticism that it is an unfair financial sector subsidy. It has also pushed the Fed from a consistent profit maker to a money loser, and the profits it once handed to the Treasury to defray federal deficits are gone until the central bank can clear the red ink.Cruz argued that his push to end the power was ultimately about lowering deficits. But critics contend his goal of a de facto return to the pre-crisis policy system was full of unintended consequences and misunderstandings. Dudley said losses are not inherent to the current rate-control system but arise from the Fed having bought longer-dated bonds as a form of stimulus, creating the current mismatch between income and interest expenses that's led to losses.Powell told a U.S. Senate committee in June that "if you were to want to go back to scarce reserves, it would be a long and bumpy and volatile road."Losing interest rate-paying power could force the Fed to aggressively retire the excess liquidity that its current toolkit relies upon to prevent short-term rates from spiraling out of control. And that would likely mean the Fed would sell a substantial portion of the bonds it now owns."I understand there is a desire on the part of some to go back to the pre-(global financial crisis) framework for operating monetary policy," said Ellen Meade, a former top Fed staffer who is now an economics professor at Duke University. But the selling of bonds needed to draw down liquidity rapidly would push up real-world interest rates, "so any return to the pre-GFC system will involve macroeconomic pain."BALANCE-SHEET BLUESEven without toying with the Fed's rate-control tools, questions abound regarding how big its bond holdings should be.Since 2022 it has shed more than $2 trillion of bonds, and market participants estimate the reductions will end when the balance sheet drops to about $6.1 trillion from the current $6.7 trillion. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has been mentioned as a possible successor to Powell, recently said it's possible that holdings could drop to $5.9 trillion.Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who is also said to be on the short list to replace Powell, wants to go much further, and for unique reasons. In recent television interviews, he's laid out a Fed balance sheet vision that would mix rate cuts aimed at bolstering Main Street with aggressive bond holding cuts, which he believes will tamp down Wall Street speculation."We're skeptical of that policy prescription," analysts at research firm Wrightson ICAP wrote. They noted, however, that Warsh's view "is a vivid reminder that everything in U.S. economic policy will be up for grabs over the coming year."How much is bluster versus real strategy for change at the Fed is unclear.When it comes to recent developments, a lot is tied to "Republicans leaving no stone unturned in their sort of ongoing campaign of pressuring the Fed for easier policy in general," said Derek Tang, an analyst with forecasting firm LH Meyer. "The balance sheet is a very big front for that, because it's sort of where the Fed's rate-setting and portfolio decisions intersect with the amount of fiscal space that the Trump administration has."Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao

Fed's policy toolkit may be headed for fundamental changes

NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - Bond investors are adding portfolio risk after a long period of caution, seeing the U.S. economy in a "Goldilocks" moment, not too hot nor too cold, as they bet the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged for a fifth straight policy meeting.Investors are buying more corporate bonds and adding a little bit more duration to their portfolios, suggesting they're more comfortable going further out the curve. The U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is broadly expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range when its two-day meeting ends Wednesday. Standing pat has been its default stance since December, given a surprisingly resilient economy that has seen a fairly stable labor market and generally subdued inflation."Our systems are saying that economic growth seems to be fairly firm, although we could argue that it's fraying at the edges," said Jeff Young, head of investment strategy, at PGIM Quantitative Solutions in New Jersey."We've seen some prices ticking up, but that's not necessarily overall generalized inflation. It's a one-off price increase on certain goods and that has allowed the Fed to maintain this wait-and-see posture."Futures tracking the Fed's policy rate show a roughly 65% chance that the central bank will deliver a rate cut in September, with another possible at the October or December meetings. All told, rates futures on Monday implied about 44 basis points (bps) of easing in 2025, or just under two rate declines of 25 bps each.The Fed reduced rates three times in 2024 before pausing its easing cycle early this year.The U.S. central bank's current wait-and-see approach is a signal for bond investors to tiptoe back into risk-taking, analysts said."We are overweight credit risk within our portfolios, getting risk back that we sold or removed in March and the beginning part of April given the uncertainty and tight valuations at that point in the economy," said Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management in Boston."Growth is slowing, but not slowing into recession levels. So this almost makes it a very 'Goldilocks' type of environment for fixed income, especially credit where you don't see recession fears and balance sheets are very strong, both consumer and corporate."FADING WORRIESSigns of easing anxiety have been in place in the bond market the last few weeks.Federal Reserve building in WashingtonThe exterior of the Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tabJ.P. Morgan said in its latest Treasury survey as of a week ago that the percentage of all clients that are long duration relative to their benchmarks has increased to 30% from 26% in the previous week. Adding duration can reflect optimism that interest rates will fall.Expressed in number of years, duration relates to how far a bond's value will fall or rise when interest rates move. In general, when rates fall, higher-duration bonds experience a greater increase in value compared to those with lower duration.In the credit market, spreads to Treasuries have also narrowed since blowing out the week after President Donald Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcements that panicked markets with the prospect of trade wars that could exacerbate inflationary pressures.The investment-grade bond spread stood at 78 basis points (bps) last Friday, the tightest since mid-November last year, and 1 bp shy of the lowest point of 77 bps hit in 1998, according to ICE BAML data. It had touched 121 bps, or the highest since November 2023, in the days after Liberation Day.The high-yield spread also showed a similar recovery, showing 284 bps last Friday, down from 461 bps a week after Liberation day.A narrower spread indicates that bond investors are demanding less additional yield to hold riskier corporate bonds over safer U.S. Treasuries and reflects confidence about the U.S. economy and corporate health.Bond volatility has also been low, suggesting a stable economic environment for fixed income investors. As of last Friday, the ICE BofA MOVE index was 82.09 (.MOVE), opens new tab, a two-week low."We are running our portfolio at lower levels of risk than our long-run averages," said Dan Siluk, head of global short duration and liquidity at Janus Henderson Investors, but he clarified that caution remains because the firm has kept duration shorter."We've got more triple Bs (corporate bonds with a Triple B-rating), we've got high yield in the portfolio, but rather than owning a three-year, I'm going to own the one-year, he added. "And that means I'm turning the portfolio over more, but I'm looking for good opportunities.Other bond investors are similarly cautious, but on the lookout for relative value."The quality of the portfolio is the highest it has ever been given all the uncertainty. So we have been more defensive. But we're still deploying cash and we are looking for relative value opportunities," said David Norris, a partner at TwentyFour Asset Management."We think markets are very frothy given the action in spreads."Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Laura Matthews; Editing by Alden Bentley and Anna Driver

Bond investors warm to risk, with Fed staying put in 'Goldilocks' economy

NEW YORK, LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A global equities gauge fell on Monday while the euro took a tumble and U.S. Treasuries sold off as investors cautiously greeted a trade agreement between the U.S. and European Union at the start of an action-packed week for markets. The weekend's framework trade deal, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described as the best the bloc could get, will impose a 15% import tariff on most EU goods while the EU is set to spend $600 billion on U.S. investments and open up some important parts of its market.While the accord may avert a damaging standoff between the trading partners, which account for almost a third of global trade, some European capitals complained it was lopsided in favor of Washington."The brunt of it is being felt by the euro because when you really step back, Europe gave up a lot. Relatively speaking, the U.S. didn't give up anything," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Equity investor enthusiasm over the trade deal likely faded as market participants looked into the details and questioned how Europe's requirement for spending on U.S. defense and energy would be enforced, Janasiewicz added.MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 2.78 points, or 0.30%, to 938.48. The index, representing stocks from 47 countries, had boasted five record closes out of the prior six trading sessions. Monday's tepid equity action followed a series of record highs for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, thanks to solid quarterly earnings and betson megacaps and artificial intelligence stocks as well as optimism that the U.S. would ultimately reach agreements with its trading partners.On Wall Street the 500 (.SPX) barely managed to squeak another record close, its sixth in a row, by finishing up 1.13 points, or 0.02%, at 6,389.77.The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) also managed a record close with a gain of 70.27 points, or 0.33%, to 21,178.58. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 64.36 points, or 0.14%, to 44,837.56, still short of its early December record close.Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index closed down 0.22%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 0.15%.Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, said that removing uncertainty was a relief along with the 15% tariff rate, which was lower than some of "the ridiculous numbers" being talked about in early April."You've got some certainty going forward, and you've got numbers that seem reasonable," he said.Orlando said investors should be patient since the S&amp;P 500 had already risen about 32% from its April lows. He pointed to U.S. inflation and payroll reports and a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting all due in the week ahead, along with earnings reports from megacaps including Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O).Europe's agreement follows U.S. pacts with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines made last week. Other countries were still scrambling to make deals ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline.Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials met in Stockholm on Monday for more than five hours of talks aimed at resolving longstanding economic disputes at the centre of a between the world's top two economies, seeking to extend a truce by three months.In currencies, the dollar rose against major currencies after the weekend's trade pact, with investors also looking to this week's U.S. and Japanese central bank meetings.The euro &lt;EUR=&gt; was down 1.27% at $1.1591. Against the Japanese yen &lt;JPY=&gt;, the dollar strengthened 0.62% to 148.57.The dollar index &lt;=USD&gt;, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 1.07% to 98.65.In U.S. Treasuries, yields rose following the trade deal and U.S. bond auctions. The next U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting kicks off on Tuesday and the Fed is not expected to change interest rates this week. The central bank has been cautious on rate cuts as officials want to determine the impact of tariffs on inflation before making decisions.The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 2.8 basis points to 4.414%, from 4.386% late on Friday while the 30-year bond yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.9616%.The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 1.1 basis points to 3.928%.In energy markets, oil prices rallied more than 2% after the U.S.-EU deal and Trump's announcement that he would set for Russia to end its war in Ukraine or face severe tariffs.U.S. crude settled up 2.38% or $1.55, at $66.71 per barrel while Brent finished at $70.04 per barrel, up 2.34%, or $1.60 on the day. In precious metals, gold fell to a near three-week low as the trade accord lifted the dollar and risk sentiment, while investors awaited fresh cues on rate policy from this week's Fed meeting.Spot gold fell 0.56% to $3,317.31 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.74% to $3,309.20 an ounce.Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Marc Jones in London, Ankur Banerjee and Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore; Editing by Jan Harvey, Giles Elgood and Nia Williams

Global stock index falls, euro slides after US-EU trade deal

Peru is evaluating the authorization of 134 mining exploration and exploitation projects worth an estimated investment of $6 billion, President Dina Boluarte said on Monday, as her government looks to boost revenues from the key industry.Boluarte said in an address to Congress that by the end of this year she expected the formal small-scale mining sector to generate more than $5 billion in annual sales, and that $4.7 billion in formal projects should have started construction by 2026.Officials in Peru, the world’s third-biggest copper producer, are currently in talks with informal miners who launched protests late June that blocked a key transport corridor for major miners including MMG and Glencore.Tensions escalated after over 50,000 informal miners were removed from a formalization scheme, leaving just 31,000 that the government is seeking to bring in line with regulations by the end of this year.Boluarte said the government was working on starting a private mining fund that would give small formal miners access to better financing.(By Marco Aquino and Sarah Morland; Editing by Natalia Siniawski)

Peru mulls green light for $6 billion in mining projects

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 posted its sixth straight record high close, while the Nasdaq edged up to a closing record, in choppy trade as investors gauged the U.S.-EU trade pact and prepared for a week of major market catalysts.U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a trade framework on Sunday, slashing EU import tariffs to 15% - half the previously threatened rate that was scheduled to take effect on August 1. Still, France denounced the deal as a "submission."The deal is the latest announcement in recent days on U.S. trade agreements with countries such as Japan and Indonesia. Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials resumed talks in Stockholm to resolve a trade war between the world's two largest economies."It's feel-good in the sense that it doesn't represent Armageddon, if the draconian tariffs went into place," said Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity in Potomac, Maryland."But it's much too soon to pass judgment on the long-term effects on how that will play out. It's better than the alternative for sure, and so I hope they continue."According to preliminary data, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), gained 1.17 points, or 0.02%, to end at 6,389.81 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), gained 69.47 points, or 0.33%, to 21,177.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), fell 62.33 points, or 0.14%, to 44,839.59.The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index notched five daily closing records last week, en route to its 14th closing record of the year as stocks have rebounded strongly from a selloff that began in early April when Trump announced a slew of tariffs.Investors now await a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep U.S. rates unchanged even as Trump has ramped up pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower borrowing costs.Also on deck this week were a slew of corporate earnings, including results from heavyweights Meta (META.O),Microsoft (MSFT.O),Amazon (AMZN.O), and Apple (AAPL.O),which could sway broader investor sentiment in either direction.Along with the Fed meeting and earnings, a number of economic indicators are scheduled to be released this week, including the Personal Consumption Expenditure report (PCE) - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - and the government payrolls report to gauge how tariffs may have affected consumer prices and the labor market.Nike (NKE.N), climbed after J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock to "overweight" from "neutral" and said investors should "just buy it".Energy (.SPNY), was the best performing S&amp;P sector on the session, buoyed by a jump of more than 2% in oil prices while real estate (.SPLRCR), and materials (.SPLRCM), were the worst performing.Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Nikhil Sharma and Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio

S&P, Nasdaq close at record highs again, trade choppy

NEW YORK/LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Monday as markets were buoyed by a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which brought some market certainty and averted a global trade war.U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a framework trade agreement on Sunday, which provides for an import tariff of 15% on EU goods, half the rate Trump had threatened from August 1.That follows last week's U.S. agreement with Japan, while top U.S. and Chinese economic officials resumed talks in Stockholm on Monday, aiming to extend a truce by three months and keep sharply higher tariffs at bay."If you rewind back to early April or Liberation Day, the overarching theme has been selling US assets because of uncertainties due to the new trade regime," said Eugene Epstein, head of structuring for North America at Moneycorp in New Jersey. "I would argue that what you're seeing is some resemblance of return to normalcy."The dollar rose against the safe-haven Swiss franc , up 1% at 0.80325 francs. It rose against the Japanese yen , up 0.59% at 148.535. Advertisement · Scroll to continueThe euro was last down 1.25% at $1.159125 , set for its biggest daily loss since mid-May, reversing an initial knee-jerk rise in Asia trade as investors' focus shifted to what an easing in global trade tensions meant for the dollar overall.The dollar tumbled sharply earlier this year, particularly against the euro, as fears that dramatically higher tariffs on trade with most of its major partners would hurt the U.S. economy caused investors to consider shifting out of U.S. assets.U.S. stocks were mostly lower but still trading near record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI),fell 0.3%, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX),dipped 0.15% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC),rose 0.14%.Normally, the gap between yields on government bonds is a major factor for currency moves, but at present, the euro is significantly higher than the gap between U.S. and euro zone yields would imply."If you think about what we expected in the beginning of the year, no one really thought that the euro was going to be so strong. We all thought that, especially post Liberation Day, the dollar will remain strong," said Anthi Tsouvali, multi-asset strategist at UBS Wealth. "We continue to see the dollar weakening."The euro fell against the yen and sterling, having hit a one-year high on the Japanese currency and a two-year high on the pound at the start of trade. ,The dollar strengthened against the pound, which was 0.67% lower at $1.33545.As concerns subside about the economic fallout from punishing tariffs, investor attention is shifting to corporate earnings and central bank meetings in the United States and Japan in the next few days.Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at policy meetings this week, but traders will watch subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves.Investors will also be watching to see Trump's reaction to the Fed's decision. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 1.5 basis points to 3.932%, from 3.917% late on Friday.Trump has been putting the Fed under heavy pressure to make significant rate cuts, and Trump appeared close to trying to fire Powell last week, but backed off with a nod to the market disruption that would likely follow.In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.52% to $118,205.38. Ethereum declined 0.61% to $3,800.90.Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York and Rocky Swift in Tokyo and Alun John in London; Additional reporting by Twesha Dikshit and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Kevin Liffey, Nick Zieminski, Rod Nickel

Dollar rises against major peers after US-EU trade pact

TORONTO, July 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened to a 10-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Monday but its decline, ahead of a Bank of Canada interest rate decision this week, was the smallest by far among the Group of 10 currencies.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3730 per U.S. dollar, or 72.83 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since July 18 at 1.3742. The U.S. dollar (.DXY), jumped 1% against a basket of major currencies after the U.S. and the EU struck a framework trade pact, the latest in a flurry of deals to avert a global trade war. "It's mostly a broad-based (U.S.) dollar recovery story that began earlier in July," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC."It's a technical correction supported by higher U.S. interest rates here in July. I think it's got a little bit more room to run, but what concerns me is that the big events this week are still ahead of us."Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are due to make interest rate decisions on Wednesday.The BoC is likely to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75% for the third straight meeting, economists and market analysts predict, as firm core inflation and robust job growth offset trade uncertainty.Talks between Canada and the United States on a trade deal are at an intense phase, Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters, reiterating that an agreement without any tariffs at all was unlikely.Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the U.S., including oil which settled 2.4% higher at $66.71 a barrel.Canadian bond yields edged higher across the curve. The 10-year was up one basis point at 3.535%.Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

Canadian dollar hits 10-day low against greenback; gains versus other G10 currencies

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slipped on Monday after the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq edged up to fresh intraday records, as investors assessed the U.S.-EU trade pact and braced for a week of major market catalysts.U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a trade framework on Sunday, slashing EU import tariffs to 15% - half the previously threatened rate that was scheduled to take effect on August 1. Still, France denounced the deal as a "submission."The deal is the latest in a string of announcements in recent days on trade agreements with countries such as Japan and Indonesia. Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials resumed talks in Stockholm to resolve longstanding economic disputes at the crux of a trade war between the world's two largest economies."It's feel-good in the sense that it doesn't represent Armageddon, if the draconian tariffs went into place," said Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity in Potomac, Maryland."But it's much too soon to pass judgment on the long-term effects on how that will play out. It's better than the alternative for sure, and so I hope they continue."The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), fell 128.16 points, or 0.29%, to 44,773.76, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), lost 8.59 points, or 0.14%, to 6,380.05 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), gained 33.74 points, or 0.16%, to 21,141.93.While the moves on Wall Street were modest, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both managed to climb to intraday records.Aside from the trade announcement, investors were awaiting a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep U.S. rates unchanged even as the White House has ramped up pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower borrowing costs.Also on deck this week were a slew of corporate earnings, including results from heavyweights Meta (META.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), and Apple (AAPL.O), which could sway broader investor sentiment in either direction.Along with the Fed meeting and earnings, a number of economic indicators are scheduled to be released this week, including the Personal Consumption Expenditure report (PCE) - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - and the government payrolls report to gauge how tariffs may have affected consumer prices and the labor market.Nike (NKE.N), climbed 3.8% after J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock to "overweight" from "neutral" and said investors should "just buy it".Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.94-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, and by a 1.47-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.The S&amp;P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 62 new highs and 45 new lows.Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Nikhil Sharma and Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio

Stocks dip, retreating from record highs hit after EU trade deal

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

Latest News

Video News

Now Trending

Opinion

Commodities

Cryptocurrencies

Mining

Economy

Off The Wire