At the end of October, Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Iranian military sites. While Tehran claimed it intercepted most of the attack, the impact seems to have been substantial.
According to Tel Aviv officials, critical missile production facilities and air defense systems were severely damaged, which could leave Iran more vulnerable to further escalation and most likely would benefit XAUUSD.
Initially, this led many to believe that the worst was over and neither side would proceed with the conflict, which eased concerns and briefly lowered oil prices. But the calm was short-lived.
Reports soon began to circulate that Iran could launch an attack against Israel directly or through its proxies in Yemen and Iraq, renewing tensions in the region and shaking investor confidence.
Tehran could launch an attack on Israel as early as this week, with the possibility of firing some 400 missiles aimed at key targets such as air bases and air defense systems near Haifa.
Iran could deploy its most advanced missiles to ensure impact, including those capable of mid-flight maneuvers to evade enemy defenses. However, any such move is likely to trigger a strong response.
The Israeli military might specifically target Iran's oil facilities, which are a crucial source of revenue for the country’s budget. It’s a strange situation overall — why announce plans to the world ahead of time?
Will a change in the U.S. presidency change anything?
Unfortunately, no matter who wins the election, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any major changes in the Middle East's geopolitical landscape. Things could even take a turn for the worse shortly.
Kamala Harris, for example, is likely to continue the policies of her predecessor, Joe Biden. Support for Israel may even increase after the election, as there is no need to continue fighting for votes.
As for Trump, Despite his claims that the current situation wouldn't have happened during his presidency, we should remember that the U.S. targeted several senior IRGC officials while he was in office.
Overall, it seems likely that military actions will turn toward Iran, which could negatively impact the region and the global economy. Disruptions in the supply chain could lead to higher prices everywhere.
The timeline for this is uncertain — it could happen in a week, a couple of months, or even years. But one thing is clear: now is not the time to let our guard down, as the worst may still be to come.