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NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - A packed upcoming week for markets will test a U.S. stocks rebound, with investors focused on a wave of corporate results led by Apple and Microsoft, while the prospect of global trade developments threatens to cause volatility at any time.The monthly U.S. employment report, data on first-quarter U.S. economic growth and an inflation update add to the potential market-sensitive events in the coming week, as investors weigh whether the recent strength suggests the worst of a tariff-induced equities tumble is over.With the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), on pace for a solid week of gains, the U.S. benchmark index has pared its recent slide by about half but remains down some 10% from its February record high.Sentiment for equities has been lifted this week by signals of easing in the Trump administration's trade stance, including possible de-escalation with China. But the situation remains fluid and fresh developments on tariffs could undermine the market gains."There seems to be some potential for compromise on the tariff situation," which has supported the recent rally, said Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.But stocks will remain sensitive to "the news flow that day," Mullaney said. "If it's positive on tariffs, the market goes up. If it's negative on tariffs, the market goes down."Investors are bracing for more twists and turns on trade after President Donald Trump this month paused many of the heftiest import tariffs on other countries until July. Trump's pullback came after his April 2 announcement of sweeping levies set off severe stock volatility and rattled the bond market.Tariff uncertainty will be a critical topic for upcoming corporate reports.About 180 S&amp;P 500 companies representing over 40% of the index's market value are set to post quarterly results in the coming week, according to UBS. Chief among them are Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), and Meta Platforms (META.O), four of the "Magnificent Seven" megacap tech and growth companies whose shares have faltered in 2025 after putting up massive gains the prior two years.With over one-third of S&amp;P 500 companies having reported, profits are on pace to beat expectations for the period. S&amp;P 500 earnings are on pace to have climbed 9.7% in the first quarter from a year ago, up from an estimate of an 8% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES."People were expecting the worst, and that typically happens when markets retrench," said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management in San Francisco. "But the numbers really haven't been that bad."Still, some companies have pointed to challenges ahead. Consumer staples company Procter &amp; Gamble (PG.N), soda and snacks company PepsiCo (PEP.O), and medical equipment maker Thermo Fisher (TMO.N), all cut their annual profit forecasts.Investors also will watch the extent to which the new global trade regime is hitting economic data, with broad concerns the new tariffs will drive up prices and slow growth.Data in the coming week includes gross domestic product for the first quarter, and the March reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation reading.The monthly U.S. jobs report, due on May 2, could provide the biggest test for markets. The labor market has demonstrated stability in recent months, and employment is expected to have climbed by 135,000 jobs in April, according to a Reuters poll.But doubts about the economic outlook are being fueled by dour readings in consumer sentiment and other surveys, with investors eager to see if such troubling "soft data" will translate into weakness in reports seen as giving more concrete evidence about the economy."If the consumer is going to be the engine of ongoing growth in the U.S., it puts the burden of proof onto the jobs report," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Rod Nickel

Wall St week ahead big tech earnings, US jobs data highlight busy week for markets

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - International Monetary Fund member countries said on Friday that rising trade tensions were sapping growth and fueling uncertainty as well as market and financial stability risks, but reaffirmed their commitment to the institution as critical to helping countries navigate a difficult environment.In a chair's statement, the IMF's steering committee also reaffirmed prior foreign exchange commitments and voiced support for a realignment of quotas, or shareholding, that better reflects countries' positions in the global economy. "The world economy is at a pivotal juncture," the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) said in a statement as the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank drew to a close. "Following several years of rising concerns over trade, trade tensions have abruptly soared, fueling elevated uncertainty, market volatility, and risks to growth and financial stability."The message comes at the end of a tense week for policymakers and investors anxious about U.S. President Donald Trump's moves to upend global trade and his commitment to international institutions.The IMF on Tuesday slashed its economic forecasts for the U.S., China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade strife would further slow growth. It forecast global growth of 2.8% for 2025, down half a percentage point from its January forecast. Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, who chairs the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), said the Fund must continue to focus on its core mandates, including expanding trade and growth."Addressing global debt vulnerabilities remains a priority for our members, especially for low-income and vulnerable countries," Al-Jadaan told a news conference in Washington.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva acknowledged that the raft of current geopolitical flare-ups, especially Trump's push to redesign world trade with a barrage of tariffs, had distracted from discussions about other pressing challenges, including artificial intelligence, in public and behind closed doors.She said it was encouraging that members had been able to engage in open conversations and share their views "in a fair space," but said she didn't want to minimize the discord."I don't want to sugarcoat - we still have quite a challenging time," she said at the news briefing.Gathering members to talk about Syria had also given a new sense of urgency and purpose to turning a place of conflict into a stable and economically successful country benefiting the region and the world, Al-Jadaan said."It is not just about the money, it's about the work that I and other partners can deliver and capacity development, quality data and timely advice."Al-Jadaan said trade had been the overriding concern during the meetings but he remained optimistic that solutions could be found after a week of candid and frank discussions."Actually today, we are holding in a lot better position than when we started the week. People understand the consequences and are working together in a constructive way to resolve tensions," he said.Reporting by Karin Strohecker, David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Andrea Ricci

IMF policy committee underscores trade risks to global economy, commits to Fund's role

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - Rising risks around global trade, general policy uncertainty, and the sustainability of U.S. debt topped the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system in a new Federal Reserve survey released on Friday.The bi-annual Fed survey of financial risks was the first since President Donald Trump returned to office, and the impact of his aggressive policy agenda was apparent, especially around tariffs. Seventy-three percent of respondents cited global trade risks as a top concern, more than twice the number reported in November. Half cited policy uncertainty in general as a top concern, up as well from the fall. "Concern over changes to trade policy was the top-cited risk this cycle. While many respondents viewed tariffs as the key risk, some noted that the domestic economy could weather incremental tariffs on imported goods with only modest disruption," the report stated, adding, "Respondents considered that the potential for an escalatory trade war could have more severe consequences."Respondents cited "changes in government spending priorities and the extent of U.S. international engagement" as driving uncertainty. The latest survey also found more attention focused on issues related to recent market turmoil, with 27% of contacts worried about functioning Treasury markets, up from 17% in the fall. Foreign divestment of U.S. assets and the value of the dollar also rose on the list of concerns.The Fed said the "vast majority" of the 22 survey respondents, who include academics, investors and finance professionals, submitted their answers before April 2, the day Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on countries around the world. A week later, Trump put the most punishing levies on hold for 90 days as the administration looks to negotiate fresh trade deals.The heightened policy uncertainty that has pushed up market volatility since Trump returned to the White House was partly offset by the Fed finding relative stability in a range of other areas.For example, the U.S. central bank said commercial real estate prices, a long-running concern following the COVID-19 pandemic, showed signs of stabilizing. And while markets were strained in early April as liquidity was low in both stocks and Treasury bonds, the Fed said both markets remained orderly.However, the Fed cautioned that even following the April selloff, asset valuations remained relatively high, and residential real estate prices also were elevated.The Fed said the U.S. banking system remained sound and resilient, as firms maintained robust capital ratios. But it did find that bank credit commitments to less regulated non-banks continued to increase.It also cautioned that hedge fund leverage, particularly at the largest firms, was at or near historical highs, although it believes that leverage diminished in early April as funds unwound positions.Reporting by Pete Schroeder; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao

Fed survey finds global trade fight, policy uncertainty top financial stability risks

NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - The dollar headed for its first weekly gain since mid-March on Friday after China granted some tariff exemptions for U.S. imports, raising hopes that the trade war between the world's two largest economies may be closer to abating.The U.S. currency has been whipsawed this week by conflicting signs for a thaw in the fraught relations between Washington and Beijing. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a de-escalation of their tit-for-tat tariff battle, saying direct talks were already underway. By Friday, a number of businesses that had been notified of the changes said China had granted some exemptions from its 125% tariffs on U.S. imports and was asking companies to identify the goods that could be eligible.Trump, in an interview with Time magazine published on Friday, said his administration was talking with China to strike a tariff deal and that Chinese President Xi Jinping has called him. Beijing, however, continues to dispute the U.S. characterization of the talks.The dollar rose against a basket of currencies , up around 0.07% on the day and set for a modest weekly gain, its first since the middle of March. "I don't think that anything's necessarily much clearer now, but it does feel like there's no more ramping up. It feels like it's coming the other way and if anything, it seems to be heading more towards de-escalation than escalation," said City Index market strategist Fiona Cincotta.However, even with some exemptions in place, there was still not enough clarity over the bigger picture to fully reverse some of the investor flows out of the dollar, which has dropped 4% since Trump first announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2."We have seen this pull out of oversold territory. But it's definitely too early to be cracking open the champagne for the dollar recovery, we're not quite there yet," said Cincotta.SAFE HAVENS DROOPThe dollar was up 0.67% on the day against the yen at 143.555 and was up 0.09% against the Swiss franc at 0.827 francs.The euro fell 0.11% to $1.1377, while the pound declined 0.1% to $1.3325, even after surprisingly strong UK retail sales figures.Trump had rocked the dollar at the start of the week, sending it spiralling lower against other major currencies with his threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates quickly enough. It then jumped back on Tuesday when the president said he never had any intention of replacing the central bank boss.Washington has made some progress in early trade talks with Asian allies South Korea and Japan.The Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said after meeting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that there were no talks on currency targets. Trump has accused Tokyo of weakening its currency to help its exporters.Japan's chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who is also economy minister, will hold a second round of trade talks with Bessent next week."Even if reports are correct that there will be some easing of tariff rates, a hit to U.S. growth is still coming that will ensure volatility levels remain higher, equity markets are pressured to the downside and the global backdrop remains unfavourable for any sustained move higher in dollar/yen," said MUFG strategist Derek Halpenny.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday reiterated the central bank's commitment to raising interest rates if underlying inflation moved towards the 2% target as projected. But he repeated that policymakers needed to scrutinise the fallout from U.S. tariffs.The BOJ is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its two-day meeting that ends on May 1.Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York and Amanda Cooper in London; additional reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Joe Bavier

Dollar set for first weekly gain since March on signs of easing US-China tensions

Gold and silver market update: central bank moves, political turmoil, and metal prices

April 25 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump asserted in an interview published Friday that tariff negotiations were underway with China, but Beijing denied any talks were taking place, the latest in a series of conflicting signals over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war threatening to sap global growth. &nbsp;Trump told TIME magazine that talks were taking place and that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him, an assertion he repeated to reporters as he was leaving the White House on Friday morning for Rome to attend the funeral of Pope Francis. "China and the U.S. are NOT having any consultation or negotiation on #tariffs," China shot back in a foreign ministry statement posted by the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. "The U.S. should stop creating confusion."The back-and-forth added to the substantial uncertainty surrounding the state of play over Trump's erratic tariff policy, not just around China, but also as it pertains to the dozens of countries scrambling to strike their own deals to ease the burden of the hefty import taxes he has unleashed since returning to the White House in January.His team of negotiators was conducting what amounted to a lightning round of trade talks with foreign officials who had swarmed Washington this week for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group.But while Trump officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted indications of swift progress, many of their counterparts were more circumspect, and finance chiefs at the IMF were heading home with renewed urgency to diminish the risks presented by the tariffs."I'm walking away from these meetings with a clear sense of everything that is at stake and the risks that are there for jobs, for growth, for living standards all over the world," Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe told Reuters. "The meetings here ... reminded me of why we need to leave no stone unturned in the next few weeks and months to see how we can reduce that uncertainty."DE-ESCALATIONWhile clarity on whether deals are actually being struck to avoid the imposition of even steeper tariffs come early July, there were signs of some de-escalation.China exempted some U.S. imports from its steep tariffs as business groups said Beijing has allowed some U.S.-made pharmaceuticals to enter the country without paying the 125% duties that Beijing imposed earlier this month in response to Trump's 145% tariffs on U.S. imports.Also, a list of 131 product categories said to be under consideration for exemptions was circulating among some businesses and trade groups. Reuters could not verify the list, which includes vaccines, chemicals and jet engines, and China has not yet communicated publicly on the issue.Trump's administration has also in recent days signaled it is looking to defuse the tension with China, with Bessent saying both sides see the current state of play as untenable.Meanwhile, Trump told reporters at the White House that he was very close to a deal with Japan. That is seen by analysts as a &amp;quot;test case&amp;quot; for other bilateral trade agreements, though talks could be difficult. Some expect Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Trump to announce a pact when they meet at the G7 summit in Canada in June.Trump also told TIME that he had made "200 deals" that would be completed within three to four weeks, though he declined to provide specifics. He said he would consider it a "total victory" if tariffs were still 20% to 50% a year from now.Trump has argued that his thicket of trade barriers will revive U.S. manufacturing industries that have been hollowed out by global competition.Economists, however, broadly warn that they would lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers and increase the risk of recession.U.S. stocks were on track for a weekly gain, though they are down roughly 10% since Trump returned to office in January, lagging indexes in other countries, while the dollar has fallen at an unprecedented rate.European and Asian stocks headed for a second straight week of gains on Friday and the dollar eyed its first weekly rise in more than a month, as investors took comfort from signs the U.S. and China were prepared to pull back from their trade war. Wall Street's main indexes rose slightly as investors struggled for clarity on the U.S.-China trade front.In addition to the country-specific tariffs, Trump has also imposed a blanket 10% tariff on all other U.S. imports and higher duties on steel, aluminum and autos.He has also floated additional industry-specific levies on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. That could cause drug prices in the U.S. to rise by up to 12.9%, according to an industry estimate.Trump's tariffs dominated discussions at the IMF meetings this week, where finance ministers angled for one-on-one meetings with the U.S. treasury secretary.Bessent characterized initial talks with South Korea as "very successful" on Thursday, which Seoul called a "good start." Further discussions are scheduled for next week.Switzerland also said it was satisfied with its initial meeting with Bessent. The U.S. trade office said it is "constantly engaged" with Japan and other countries, but said Trump would ultimately decide whether they would proceed.There was little sign of tangible progress with other countries, despite the urging of IMF head Kristalina Georgieva, who warned earlier this week they could cause a severe slowdown in global growth.Reporting by Reuters bureaus worldwide; Writing by Andy Sullivan and Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Marguerita Choy

Conflicting US-China talks statements add to global trade confusion

NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Friday but were set for a weekly decline, under pressure from market expectations of oversupply and uncertainty around tariff talks between the U.S. and China.Brent crude futures were up 45 cents to $67.00 a barrel at 1:12 p.m. EDT (1712 GMT), taking losses to 1.5% over the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 45 cents to $63.24 a barrel, headed for a weekly decline of 2.2%. China exempted some U.S. imports from its steep tariffs in a sign on Friday that the trade war between the world's top two economies could be easing, though Beijing quickly knocked down U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion that negotiations were under way."Traders now view further (crude price) gains as unlikely in the short term due to the continued trade war among top global consumers and speculation that OPEC+ may accelerate production hikes from June," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said.Oil prices fell earlier this month to four-year lows after tariffs sparked investor concern about global demand and a selloff in financial markets. While the risk is that a weaker economy will erode demand, supplies could swell.Several OPEC+ members have suggested the group accelerate oil output increases for a second month in June, Reuters reported earlier this week.An end to the war in Ukraine also has the potential to add to supplies if it allows more Russian oil to reach global markets.A three-hour meeting on Friday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff was constructive and narrowed differences when it came to ending the war in Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.In an indication of future supply, the number of oil-directed drilling rigs rose by 2 to 483 in the week to April 25, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York; Additional reporting by Enes Tunagur in London and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, David Evans, Mark Potter, Barbara Lewis, David Gregorio and Daniel Wallis

Oil drops, set for weekly fall on tariff worry and rising supplies

NEW YORK/LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - Most stock indexes edged higher on Friday and Wall Street was set to post gains for the week, while the dollar headed for its first weekly rise in over a month, as signs of an easing in the U.S.-China trade war offered solace to investors.Helping Wall Street, shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), were up 1.7% after it beat profit expectations and reaffirmed AI spending targets.Uncertainty surrounding the impacts of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff offensive and the resulting global trade tensions have dominated earnings calls this results season.In a positive development, however, China exempted some products from its steep tariffs on U.S. imports, though Beijing knocked down Trump's assertion that trade negotiations were under way.Tit-for-tat tariffs that began with Trump's announcement of hefty import levies on April 2 had threatened to stall trade between the world's two biggest economies and sparked fears of a slowdown in global growth."This week you've seen kind of relief that maybe some of the worst-case of the Trump tariff actions won't come true," said Chip Rewey, CIO of Rewey Asset Management, a registered investment advisor based in New Jersey."While we've recovered from some of the lows, we haven't pushed back to highs. And I think somewhere in that range is where we'll stay for a while."The S&amp;P 500 was set to gain for the week, while Europe's STOXX 600 rose more than 2% on the week.Investors also digested a Time magazine interview with Trump where he said high tariffs on foreign imports a year from now would represent "total victory".The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), fell 132.71 points, or 0.33%, to 39,960.69, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), rose 4.96 points, or 0.09%, to 5,489.56 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), rose 55.24 points, or 0.32%, to 17,221.29.MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS), rose 1.54 points, or 0.19%, to 821.40. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX), index rose 0.35%.In Japan, the Nikkei (.N225), was up 1.8% on Friday and has regained all its losses since Trump's announcement of the highest U.S. tariffs in 100 years - levies he largely suspended, except for China and a baseline tariff of 10%.The dollar, which has taken a beating through a volatile few weeks of tariff announcements, reversals and a flight out of U.S. assets, was up slightly against the euro and yen.The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.05% to 99.47, with the euro down 0.04% at $1.1384. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.77% to 143.72.Gold prices, which have soared this year as investors sought safe haven assets decoupled from the dollar, were last down 1.94% at $3,283.21 an ounce on Friday.U.S. crude rose 0.19% to $62.91 a barrel and Brent rose to $66.71 per barrel, up 0.24% on the day.The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 4.9 basis points to 4.257%, from 4.305% late on Thursday.Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Saad Sayeed, Kate Mayberry, Aidan Lewis and Joe Bavier

Stocks mostly inch higher, dollar gains on hopes of trade war easing

Gold prices drop 6% from all-time highs, but the rally is far from over

TORONTO, April 25 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday and was on track for a slight weekly decline, as investors weighed prospects of a cooling in U.S.-China trade tensions and awaited the outcome of Canada's general election.The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3860 per U.S. dollar, or 72.15 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3847 to 1.3892. For the week, the currency was also down 0.1%, after seven straight weekly gains. The U.S. dollar (.DXY), opens new tab rose against a basket of major currencies after China granted some tariff exemptions for U.S. imports."For the coming week, trade talks will remain the focal point for global markets," Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, strategists at Scotiabank, said in a note."The federal election in Canada may have some impact on the CAD outlook as investors assess how the new government will handle trade talks."Canada stands to elect a more business-friendly government than has been the case in recent years but its trade-dependent economy could be in line for an increased level of deficit spending, analysts and investors said before Monday's vote. Prime Minister Mark Carney's ruling Liberal Party remains ahead in the latest polls but the gap with the main opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is tightening.Canadian retail sales fell by 0.4% in February from January to C$69.33 billion ($49.95 billion) on lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers but a preliminary estimate showed sales rebounding 0.7% in March.Separate preliminary data showed factory sales falling 1.9% last month.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose 0.1% to $62.88 a barrel but was headed for a weekly decline.Canadian bond yields were mixed across a flatter curve, with the 10-year down 2.7 basis points at 3.167%.Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Alistair Bell

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