To predict silver price performance in a recession, look to copper – StoneX’s Rhona O’Connell

New bans on Russian metals mean China will buy low and sell high to supply the U.S., Europe, and UK

Gold rockets above $2,400 as commodities catch fire, analysts see no end in sight

‘Cold War 2.0’ just one reason why gold will outperform silver, base metals in H2 2024 – Bloomberg’s McGlone

Gold the best hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, price will rise 16% to $2,700 by year-end – Goldman Research

Precious metals should shine in H2 2024 based on seasonal trends, summer price gains should be strong – MKS PAMP

Gold Retreats for a Second Consecutive Day After Surging to a New All-Time Record High

Swedish miner Boliden reported first-quarter earnings above market estimates on Wednesday, helped by higher metal prices and stronger US dollar, but warned that trend had reversed since the start of April.The company, which operates seven mines and five smelters in the Nordic region, Ireland and Portugal, said its operating profit nearly doubled to 3.06 billion Swedish crowns ($319.3 million) in the quarter. That beat analysts’ average forecast of 2.59 billion crowns in an LSEG poll.Boliden, which mines base metals such as copper and zinc, as well as gold and silver, does not have any direct mining or smelting operations in the United States and said the impact of the announced global tariffs had so far been limited.“But the big effect on us is the indirect effect,” CEO Mikael Staffas said in an interview with Reuters.Global metal prices and currencies have fluctuated more than usual after the end of the first quarter, resulting in deteriorating base metal prices and a weaker dollar, Staffas said in the earnings statement, adding strong precious metal prices had only partially offset those effects.Copper prices are still at a better level than a year ago, and Boliden is positioned to operate smoothly even if the conditions worsen, he told Reuters.JPMorgan analysts said in a research note that given the company’s higher capital expenditure plans and headwinds like weaker prices, currency effects and scheduled smelter maintenance, they saw a “significant downside” to consensus estimates for second-quarter operating earnings.Boliden raised its capital expenditure forecast to 15.5 billion crowns this year, instead of the previously targeted 14 billion, reflecting the recently closed acquisition of the Somincor mine in Portugal and the Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden from Lundin Mining.Its share price was broadly unchanged as of 0830 GMT.($1 = 9.5837 Swedish crowns)(By Agnieszka Olenska and Izabela Niemiec; Editing by Milla Nissi)

Boliden gains from higher metal prices, says it can handle tougher times

Ghana and Gold Fields have reached an agreement on a transitional plan for Damang mine, the West African country’s presidency said on Wednesday.Last week, Ghana assumed operational control of the mine after it rejected an application from the South African company to renew its lease, breaking a tradition of automatically renewing licenses.The presidency said in a statement that a new 12-month mining lease will be issued to a Gold Fields’ subsidiary pending parliamentary ratification in May.During the transition period, Gold Fields will resume open-pit mining and conduct feasibility studies to establish Damang’s reserves and mine life, the presidency said in a statement.Damang is the smaller of Gold Fields’ two operations in Ghana, Africa’s leading gold producer.Representatives from Ghana’s government and the company will continue to supervise the processing of existing stockpiles, the presidency added.“This is far from ideal, but we take it like that,” said a source in the company, who was not authorized to speak on the matter.“They gave us assurance that this won’t be a trend and it won’t affect Tarkwa mine’s lease, and we are advised to apply even now so that Gold Fields can have certainty,” the source added.Both parties also agreed to advance discussions on the renewal of the lease for the Tarkwa mine, due in 2027.The source said Gold Fields’ management was more concerned about Tarkwa’s lease because of its higher volumes.(By Maxwell Akalaare Adombila and Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Bate Felix)

Ghana and Gold Fields reach transitional deal on Damang mine

Silver price to hit $50 by this summer as ‘gold gets re-monetized,’ says Midas Touch Consulting’s Florian Grummes

April 23 (Reuters) - Gold on Wednesday extended its retreat from an all-time high, falling more than 3%, as appetite for riskier assets improved after President Donald Trump said he has no plans to fire the U.S. Fed's chief and also signalled progress with China on the tariff front.Spot gold slipped 3% to $3,281.6 an ounce by 1:43 p.m. ET (1743 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,500.05 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures dropped 3.7% to settle at $3,294.10. "The market is starting to move past the tariff crash. You're going to see a broad rotation out of some of the safe haven assets back chasing some of the specific names like Apple, Tesla," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.Sentiment in wider financial markets improved and the dollar rebounded after Trump backed off from threats to fire Jerome Powell after days of intensifying criticism of the Federal Reserve chief for not cutting interest rates.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that he believes excessively high tariffs between the U.S. and China will have to come down before trade negotiations can proceed. Gold, used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, has gained more than 26% since the start of 2025, boosted by central bank buying, tariff war fears and strong investment demand."From a technical perspective, the blowout top around $3,500 and sharp reversal has, in the short term, raised the risk of a deeper correction," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.Silver was up 3% at $33.48 an ounce, platinum gained about 1.1% to $969.1 and palladium was steady at $935.59.Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Daksh Grover in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; Editing by Alexandra Hudson, Shailesh Kuber and Maju Samuel

Gold falls 3% as Trump comments on Fed and China boost risk sentiment

April 23 (Reuters) - The United States could dip into recession on the fallout from a global trade war but everyone will suffer, including the euro zone, even if to a lesser effect, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday.The U.S. has imposed a raft of tariffs on most nations around the world and while it has suspended some duties, many remain in place and the threat of trade turmoil also weighs on confidence, investment and output. "The new measures announced as well as the increasing unpredictability, constitute a major negative shock to the global economy, but first and foremost to the U.S. economy," Villeroy told the Atlantic Council in Washington. "There could even be a U.S. recession, which was unthinkable three months ago."The impact on the euro zone could be much smaller but the strife could still knock off at least a quarter of a percentage point from 2025 GDP, Villeroy, who is an influential ECB policymaker, said in a speech.While some economists say a trade war is likely to push up inflation, Villeroy played down these worries, saying the net impact could even lower prices. "There is currently no inflationary risk in Europe," he said. "The impact (of a trade war) on inflation remains more uncertain but could be as a whole on the downside."Villeroy said further attacks on the independence and credibility of central banks could add to the disruption experienced in financial markets in recent weeks.U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in recent weeks, backed off from threats to fire him this week, fuelling a rally in financial markets that had been nervous over a potential loss of the Fed's independence."Let me ... express again my gratitude to Fed’s Chair Powell, who admirably shows how a central banker must behave," Villeroy said.Reporting by Balazs Koranyi, Editing by Timothy Heritage

U.S. could dip into recession on trade war, French central banker says

WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - More work is needed to improve the sovereign debt restructuring process and help countries facing mounting debt service challenges, the chairs of a global debt roundtable said on Wednesday, as they released a new playbook to aid those efforts.The Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, formally launched in late 2022 to help accelerate progress on securing debt treatment for countries in default, met Wednesday during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Co-chaired by the IMF, the World Bank and South Africa, current chair of the Group of 20 major economies, it includes creditors, borrowing countries, private sector executives, debt experts, and financial and legal advisers.Co-chairs on Wednesday cited some progress on aspects for the debt restructuring process, including the clarification that debtor countries undergoing a restructuring but not in arrears to official bilateral creditors can request a suspension of their debt service payments.Debtor countries had pressed for assurance that such debt relief could be made available.The IMF on Wednesday announced that economic pressures from steep new U.S. tariffs will push global public debt above pandemic-era levels to nearly 100% of global GDP by the end of the decade as slower growth and trade strain government budgets.The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor projected that global public debt will grow 2.8 percentage points to 95.1% of global GDP in 2025, reaching 99.6% of global GDP by 2030.Public debt levels in low-income countries and emerging markets were already high before the COVID-19 pandemic and then rose, but have they stabilized since and look set to decline slightly or remain stable over the medium term.A few countries remained particularly vulnerable and many countries face elevated debt service challenges, with high interest costs and refinancing needs crowding out spending on education, health and infrastructure investment.Citing ongoing challenges, the co-chairs called for further work to improve restructuring processes, including the G20 Common Framework; efforts to help countries whose debt is sustainable but are faced with elevated debt service challenges; and work to prevent a future unsustainable build-up of debt.This would require "advancing robust progress on debt transparency, debt management, and debtor/investor relations," the co-chairs wrote in their progress report.They said the new playbook released Wednesday was a "user-friendly document" that summarized the key steps, concepts and processes observed in recent sovereign debt restructurings.It is a non-binding document that recognizes that each case may have its own specificities and complexities.Discussions among the global debt roundtable underlined the need for enhanced transparency and information sharing regarding restructuring agreements reached by official creditor committees. Participants also discussed the bottlenecks that can delay post-restructuring credit rating upgrades.Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Leslie Adler

Global roundtable sees rising debt risks for low-income countries as uncertainty mounts

April 23 (Reuters) - Prices are rising and economic activity has begun to slow across parts of the nation as businesses and households try to adapt to U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic rollout of sweeping tariffs aimed at reshaping global trade, a report Wednesday from the Federal Reserve showed.The "Beige Book," as the report is known, captured early fallout from Trump's policies, describing a rush to buy cars ahead of higher import duties. But activity ebbed otherwise as firms scrambled to stay apace of change and avoid big investments amid what some described as chaotic conditions. There were accounts of prices that were changing quickly or about to rise sharply, and hints of layoffs to come. "Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports," the U.S. central bank said in its latest snapshot of the nation's economic condition, based on surveys, interviews and observations collected from the commercial and community contacts of each of the Fed's 12 regional banks. "The outlook in several Districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, rose."As a way to capture the economic reality and mood two weeks ahead of each Fed policy meeting, the Beige Book has rarely been better timed. This one is based on information collected through April 14, a period that included a rapid escalation of global trade tensions.Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the report is critical in shaping his own understanding of where things are headed."Flat" was how Cleveland Fed officials described the regional economy, with construction industry contacts saying that a recent uptick in demand would likely fade. "Contacts expected a slowdown in demand over the coming months due to increasing construction costs associated with tariffs and uncertainty in the broader economy."The Richmond Fed described a coffee roaster reporting historic cost increases, a sheet metal fabricator unsure about future orders due to steel tariffs leading to price increases, and a military equipment manufacturer reporting conditions being “too chaotic” to make any decisions on future investments.Firms said "they were receiving letters from suppliers and sending letters to their customers warning that prices could increase in the near future due to tariffs. Several businesses said that until they had a better idea of how tariffs might impact them, they were minimizing new investments and planning for various cost scenarios," the Richmond Fed said.The Chicago Fed reported one machinery manufacturer's vendors were changing prices on a daily basis.Officials at the Atlanta Fed noted hints of layoffs to come, saying a small but increasing share of contacts noted plans for slight reductions in force as a result of softening demand or mounting cost pressures, with some contacts saying uncertain trade policy could cut into demand and trigger additional downsizing. The St. Louis Fed also said firms were "reporting the possibility of a reduction in force."Powell and other Fed policymakers say the tariffs will likely lead to both higher inflation and slower economic growth, a tricky mix because the central bank's policy lever - the control of short-term interest rates - can only fight one of those problems at a time.Some early signs of this toxic stagflationary mix were evident in the Beige Book as well.The San Francisco Fed said for instance: "Employment levels fell somewhat, and employers across industries and geographies reported recent and planned layoffs. Wages grew slightly. Overall prices rose modestly, and price pressures intensified for a wide range of imported goods and materials."For now, central bankers plan to wait to see where Trump's tariffs end up and how prices and the labor market actually evolve before taking any action.Even Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, considered among the more dovish of Fed policymakers, says he wants to hold fire until the dust settles, especially with the 4.2% unemployment rate indicating a still-solid labor market, and inflation, estimated at 2.3% in March by the Fed's preferred measure, nearing the Fed's 2% goal.Some cracks have appeared. Household and business confidence has dived, and surveys show families expect inflation to rise over the next year even as most indicators show longer-term inflation expectations, which the Fed feels can influence actual inflation, remain stable.Trump has attacked Powell for not cutting rates, accusing the Fed chair of courting an economic downturn that most analysts say is becoming more likely due to Trump's trade policy that is both more aggressive and less predictable than expected.Financial markets are betting the Fed will start cutting rates in June. The Fed's next rate-setting meeting is May 6-7, and central bankers are expected to leave the policy rate in its current 4.25%-4.50% range.The Beige Book contained 80 mentions of uncertainty, nearly twice as many as the last report, and 107 mentions of tariffs.But there were other concerns besides trade. Contacts of the Richmond Fed reported layoffs due to spending cuts at the federal government, including for contractors. In Montana, the Minneapolis Fed reported, "a building trades labor contact attributed the growing number of 'people on the bench' to the slowdown of federally funded projects."Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama

Price hikes, a rush to buy autos, and uncertainty in wake of Trump tariffs -- Fed report

WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday said IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank President Ajay Banga are both good leaders but must earn the Trump administration's trust by refocusing the institutions on their core missions.Bessent told reporters that no decision has been made on whether to proceed with a $4 billion pledge to the World Bank's fund for the poorest countries, the International Development Association, made last year by then-President Joe Biden. That decision, he said, will depend on U.S. budget negotiations and the bank's progress in improving its focus on development outcomes, or getting "back to basics."Bessent, in his first major remarks on the two U.S.-headquartered international financial institutions, called for both to refocus on their core missions of macroeconomic stability and development, arguing that they have strayed too far into vanity projects such as climate change that have reduced their effectiveness.Speaking at the institutions' spring meetings, Bessent acknowledged the critical roles both the International Monetary Fund and World Bank play in the international financial system, but took issue with what he called "mission creep.""The Trump administration is eager to work with them, so long as they can stay true to their missions," Bessent said in earlier remarks to the Institute of International Finance."The IMF and World Bank have enduring value. But mission creep has knocked these institutions off course. We must enact key reforms to ensure the Bretton Woods institutions are serving their stakeholders - not the other way around," he said, calling on U.S. allies to join the effort."America First does not mean America alone," he added.'THEIR VISION FOR THE IMF'Bessent told reporters later than he had met with both Georgieva and Banga, and his speech should not have come as a surprise for either."I think that they are good leaders, and I hope that they will earn the confidence of the administration in the coming months through their actions," he said.The Trump administration is reviewing its participation in international institutions, and has already pulled out of some, including the World Health Organization, raising concerns among some that it could also exit the IMF and World Bank. The U.S. is the largest shareholder in both institutions.France's central bank chief, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, on Tuesday, waded into the debate as well. He called for preservation of both institutions, albeit with a narrower focus on matters such as financial stability and payments.The IMF and World Bank were set up after the end of World War Two to help rebuild and support war-torn economies and ensure their stability in the future. In recent years, both have embraced the need to focus on climate change, which has been a drag on growth in many developing countries.A spokesperson for the IMF said the global lender would continue to work with Bessent and the Trump administration. "We look forward to continuing our engagement with the U.S. authorities on their vision for the IMF."Georgieva on Tuesday said the IMF was reviewing how it designs loan programs, and determines their length and conditions, and planned to focus on structural reforms that emphasized the private sector and growth.She said the global lender is also looking at countries that have had repeated programs - namely Argentina, Pakistan and Egypt - to ensure loan programs were designed the right way.The World Bank had no immediate response to Bessent's remarks. But Banga, since taking office in June 2023, has pushed to make the bank more efficient. He has repeatedly emphasized the need to focus on creating jobs, including through expanded work with the private sector.He is also pushing the bank's shareholders to embrace a broader energy policy in June, ending a years-long ban on lending for nuclear projects and making it easier to win approval of natural gas projects.Reporting by David Lawder; additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Bill Berkrot

IMF's Georgieva, World Bank's Banga need to earn Trump administration's trust, Bessent says

The $3,500 top in gold and the upcoming slide in commodities

U.S. policies, global instability are driving central banks to gold, views on the dollar are divided – HSBC

Gold prices down 3% as market fears ease, but the rally is far from over

Prices of battery materials lithium and cobalt assessed by consultancy Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (BMI) will be used for contracts launched by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in June, BMI told Reuters.For BMI, a price reporting agency (PRA), this is an important step in having its prices used to settle derivative contracts traded on exchanges, an area dominated by information firms Fastmarkets and S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights.An agreement between BMI and ICE signed earlier this year covers prices of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, spodumene concentrate and cobalt hydroxide, BMI said. Spodumene concentrate contains lithium.Battery metals market faces perfect storm — analysts They are all crucial materials for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles, a key plank of the global energy transition.BMI said the contracts will be cash-settled and listed in London on ICE Futures Europe. New contracts typically need regulatory approval.ICE declined to comment.“BMI is the benchmark for lithium and critical mineral prices that settle billions of dollars of contracts,” said BMI executive chairman Simon Moores.Industry sources say BMI has pioneered price assessments for lithium, cobalt and critical minerals price reporting.Approval by the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) indicates that BMI’s assessment methodology has been reviewed and conforms with international best practices and standards.In March, ICE Futures Europe president Chris Rhodes told the FT Global Commodities Summit in Switzerland that the exchange was planning to launch lithium, cobalt and spodumene derivatives in London this year.At that time Rhodes said the advantage of these contracts on ICE is that many of the participants active in these markets are already managing their wider energy portfolio at ICE.Last year, UK-based Global Commodities Holdings Ltd said it was working with ICE to create cash-settled derivatives contracts for nickel, also used in electric vehicle batteries.Commodity exchanges across the globe are seeking to capture strong expected growth in demand for minerals needed for electric vehicles and renewable energy.CME Group and the London Metal Exchange (LME), owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, offer futures in lithium and cobalt, while China’s Guangzhou Futures Exchange has listed lithium carbonate futures.Singapore-based Abaxx Commodities Exchange launched lithium carbonate and nickel sulphate contracts this year.(By Pratima Desai; Editing by Eric Onstad and Alexandra Hudson)

Benchmark Minerals and ICE team up for battery material futures

NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - Citadel's founder and CEO Kenneth Griffin said on Wednesday that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration needs to be careful about potential damage to the creditworthiness of U.S. Treasuries."We put that brand at risk," he said at a conference hosted by Semafor. "The President, the Secretary of Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce need to be very thoughtful that when you have a brand you need to behave in a way that respects that brand, that strengthens that brand, because when you tarnish that brand, it can be a lifetime to repair the damage that has been done." His comments come after the Treasuries market recently experienced dislocations triggered by tariffs. On the week of April 7, the run-up in yields this week topped the biggest weekly jump since 2001 following a sell-off.Griffin, a Republican supporter who has said he voted for Trump in the November election, said he does not oppose tariffs, but argued the trade war is devolving into a "nonsensical place.""People are not going to build manufacturing in America, because with the policy volatility, you actually undermine the very goal you're trying to achieve," the founder of a multi-billion hedge fund and a market maker added. As Trump's administration approaches its first 100 days, Griffin said he considers the accomplishments so far mixed. While the investor criticized the tariff turmoil, he praised the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) efforts to cut costs as well as immigration policies at the southern border.Reporting by Carolina Mandl, in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

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