Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally over the past 15 months has amazed even the most ardent cryptocurrency supporters as the orange coin bulldozed its way through resistance level after resistance level to climb from a low of $16,580 in January 2023 to a new all-time high of $73,040 on Tuesday, an increase of more than 340%.
While the percentage gain is noteworthy on its own, the fact that Bitcoin hit a new record high more than a month and a half before its next halving makes the rally that much more impressive, as it has historically taken several months after halvings for a new ATH to be achieved.
As a result, many of the Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and beyond have had to be reevaluated to account for its strong showing thus far, with many increasing their all-time high expectations following the uptick in demand brought by the launch of multiple spot BTC ETFs on the U.S. Market.
According to a Monday note sent to clients from analysts at Bernstein, the substantial volume of capital flooding into the new BTC ETFs will give the top crypto the fuel it needs to continue its rally, and they are even more bullish about their previous estimate of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 in 2025.
“These are still early days of Bitcoin’s integration into traditional asset portfolios,” the analysts said. “We are now more convinced about our $150K price for Bitcoin.”
“We estimated $10 billion inflows for 2024 and another $60 billion for 2025,” they added. “In the last 40 trading days since ETF launch on Jan 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have crossed $9.5 billion already.”
Aside from heavy inflows into the ETFs, the analysts argued that IRAs, private banks, and traditional pools of capital such as sovereigns have yet to gain exposure to Bitcoin via ETFs, and when they do, the value of the asset can only continue to go up.
They also said that Bitcoin miners and other crypto-related equities could benefit from Bitcoin’s strength and present promising investment opportunities. “With Bitcoin climbing new highs of $71K, we expect institutional interest in Bitcoin equities to finally tip over, and Bitcoin miners to be the largest beneficiaries,” they said, noting that the long Bitcoin miners trade requires “more patience.”
Earlier in the year, analysts at Standard Chartered predicted that the launch of spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. would lead to a Bitcoin price of $100,000 by the end of 2024 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. The analysts made this determination by using the launch of gold ETFs as a proxy.
“We expect Bitcoin to enjoy price gains of a similar magnitude as a result of US spot ETF approval, but we see these gains materializing over a shorter (one- to two-year) period, given our view that the BTC ETF market will develop more quickly,” they said. “This is consistent with our end-2024 view of Bitcoin at the USD 100,000 level.”
“If ETF-related inflows materialize as we expect, we think an end-2025 level closer to USD 200,000 is possible,” they added. “This assumes between 437,000 and 1.32mn new Bitcoins will be held in spot US ETFs by end-2024. In USD terms, this should be roughly USD 50-100bn.”
Data provided by Dune Analytics shows that with GBTC included, the listed spot BTC ETFs currently hold more than 798,000 BTC, and if the inflows recorded over the past 14 days were annualized, the ETFs will hold 7.4% of the Bitcoin supply within a year.
Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee told CNBC in late February that he sees the potential for Bitcoin to hit $150,000 in 2024 due to a variety of factors, including ETF demand and the halving.
"You have demand improving with the new ETFs, you have supply shrinking with the halving, and if monetary policy eases, which we expect, that's supportive for risk assets and Bitcoin’s holing up, and that’s another reason why I don’t think a drawdown is going to start that soon," Lee said. Longer-term, he said Bitcoin has the potential to surpass $500,000 over the next five years.
A more detailed analysis from Fundstrat shows the firm has a target range of $116,000 to $137,000 for BTC.
Hedge fund SkyBridge Capital predicts that BTC will hit $170,000 by April 2025. "People think we're nuts, and that's fine, but I don't think we're nuts, and that's why we have such a big position," said Anthony Scaramucci, founder and CEO of SkyBridge Capital, while speaking with Yahoo Finance.
At the end of 2023, Venture capitalist Tim Draper said his earlier prediction of a $250,000 Bitcoin price “will probably come pretty soon,” before adding, “I actually think that if it hits $250,000, it’ll go way past it.”
“We are going through the boom cycle” and anything can happen, he said. “I think this year we might see $250,000.”
One of Bitcoin’s biggest bulls, MicroStrategy Inc. Chairman Michael Saylor, previously predicted that the price of Bitcoin could rise to $350,000 by the end of 2024 based on factors such as increasing institutional adoption and the limited supply of BTC.
While speaking with CNBC on Monday, Saylor said they have no intention of selling anytime soon, no matter how high Bitcoin’s price goes, and compared the top crypto to other assets, such as gold, bonds, and real estate, because it is digital and "you can trade it a million times faster than conventional assets."
"We’re buying it to hold it 100 years,” he said. “So, that being the case, that $66,000 to $16,000 crash. That shook out the tourists. That shook out the nonbelievers. When it was 16,000, we were all ready to ride it to zero. And that’s what you’ll find with the Bitcoin maximalist."
Saylor said that Bitcoin has "no negative catalysts" because it is decentralized and doesn't have cash flows, and mentioned that the halving could reduce the amount of selling activity, as the miners would have less BTC to sell each day. He closed the interview by urging viewers not to think of Bitcoin as a currency, but as "digital property, a billion-dollar building in cyberspace ... the killer application is capital preservation for everybody."
One firm that has increased its Bitcoin price outlook amid the uptick in ETF demand is VanEck, which previously predicted BTC would hit a price of $80,000 in 2024, a goal this is now only $8,000 away.
"We are in unchartered territory," said Matthew Sigel, head of VanEck's digital assets research. Similar to Saylor, VanEck said their “medium-term” target of $350,000 still holds.
According to Mark Connors, head of research for crypto asset manager 3iQ, the halving will exert additional pressure on Bitcoin’s price which could see it hit $110,000 in 2024 and $140,000 in 2025. On the top end of 3iQ’s prediction, BTC could hit $180,000 this year and $450,000 in 2025.
On Thursday, Real Vision’s Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts noted that “The 2nd half #Bitcoin bull markets have had the benefit of a declining dollar (driven by improving liquidity),” in a post on X. “The $DXY tends to peak (green line) after liquidity and $BTC bottom in the 12 months prior before rolling over.”
“This supercharges all risk assets (denominator goes down), but with $BTC, the apex predator asset, it tends to go parabolic, providing real positive returns that is the envy of every other asset,” he said. “Around 101 on the DXY appears to be the level to watch for this cycle.”
“In terms of price impact, if we use the previous cycle templates, while assuming a moderation of the cycle (less upside this cycle) -- if the DXY breaks below its rising support line and trades low 90s – $BTC in the $150k-$180k range seems plausible,” Coutts concluded.
Last week, noted Bitcoin maximalist Max Keiser predicted that Bitcoin would hit $75,000 by Friday. After that failed to materialize, he tweeted, “Monday Works,” as BTC surged to a new high near $73,000 to start the week.
“$220,000 in play,” Keiser said. “My upper target for this cycle raised to $750,000. #BTC has no top because fiat money has no bottom.”
Even further out on the bullish spectrum is Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, which has given a long-term bull case estimate of more than $1.3 million per coin over the next decade.
The firm thinks Bitcoin can easily achieve this price target once it becomes widely recognized as a “store of value” independent of central banks and governments, is proven to be a hedge against inflation, and starts to account for a greater share of the global payments market.
And according to the price prediction algorithms used by CoinCodex, “Bitcoin is forecasted to trade within a range of $71,812 and $151,081,” in 2024, which would translate into an increase of 115.58% from its current price “If it reaches the upper price target.”
CoinCodex also predicted a potential high of $157,327 in 2025 and said its price could hit between $228,047 and $308,078 by 2030.
“Based on our algorithmically generated price prediction for Bitcoin, the price of BTC is expected to increase by 28.99% in the next month and reach $ 92,642 on Apr 9, 2024,” the report said. “Additionally, Bitcoin’s price is forecasted to gain 55.67% in the next six months and reach $111,802 on Sep 6, 2024. Finally, Bitcoin is expected to trade at $ 155,202 on Mar 10, 2025.”
And for those calling for a seven-figure Bitcoin price, CoinCodex said, “Bitcoin will hit $1 million in September 2039.”
