Bitcoin Struggles at Resistance as Bearish Divergences Mount
Bitcoin pierced overhead resistance and set a slightly higher local high above $86,000 but failed to hold the level, quickly falling back to the bottom of the daily TBO Cloud. Despite BTC remaining inside the Cloud—a generally bullish zone—momentum appears to be fading. Daily volume has slipped below the 30-day moving average, and although OBV is still trending above its moving average, signaling underlying strength, the price action is showing hesitation.
The daily RSI printed a lower high, suggesting weakening momentum. Meanwhile, two fresh TBT Bearish Divergence signals have appeared on the 4-hour chart, mimicking the bearish setup seen in late April before BTC dropped from $88,000 to $74,000. A repeat of that dramatic move is unlikely, but these warnings point to a possible pullback to the $80,000 range.
Market-Wide Divergences and Weakness in Altcoins Raise Concern
Stablecoin dominance rose slightly and closed above the daily TBO Cloud, with a short-term target at 8.22%. A rise to that level would likely coincide with a broader pullback across the crypto market. Bitcoin dominance remains elevated, defying bearish divergence seen between price and RSI on the daily chart. This divergence suggests eventual weakness, yet BTC.D continues to push higher.
Top 10 Dominance closed below the TBO Cloud but is showing strength through higher lows on RSI. OTHERS.D, on the other hand, is nearing its April 7th low. Even though it printed a higher low on RSI yesterday, the chart remains firmly bearish. TOTAL has maintained its structure inside the TBO Cloud, and OBV continues to trend higher, but two TBT Bearish Divergences on its 4-hour chart mirror the BTC setup and suggest caution.
The broader altcoin market remains vulnerable. OTHERS is still strong bearish, and although OBV is holding key support, the lack of a relief rally—despite falling BVOL7D—indicates how dependent ALTs are on Bitcoin's slow grind upward. Without BTC leading, low-cap coins and OTHERS will likely continue chopping lower.
Altcoin Setups Turning Bearish Amid BTC Uncertainty
SOL continues to hold inside the daily TBO Cloud and above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, but a pair of recent TBT Bearish Divergences on the 4-hour chart suggest a possible move down to $110. This would also close the open CME gap at $121. AVAX recently printed a bearish divergence cluster, with downside targets around $15 aligning with TBO Support.
OM rallied back to its 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level, but remains highly vulnerable to another pullback. HYPE triggered two bearish divergence signals on the 4-hour just below TBO Support, and XMR has climbed back above the daily TBO Cloud after last week's steep drop, showing unexpected resilience.
RENDER is signaling a likely reversal, with bearish divergence and a TBO Close Long in progress on the 4-hour just below resistance. IP followed with its first 4-hour TBO Close Short yesterday, and WIF was rejected at overhead resistance, targeting a move back down to 0.304.
Some Bright Spots Persist, but Caution Is Advised
CORE is a standout performer, now printing a TBO Open Long on the daily chart. Strong OBV and RSI back the bullish continuation, making this a solid DCA Bot candidate. RAY is climbing inside the daily TBO Cloud but faces conflicting signals, with bearish divergence on the 4-hour even as it tests TBO Resistance. GRASS is consolidating tightly; a breakout above local resistance could spark a strong move toward $2.
PENDLE remains bullish overall and is in a TBO Open Long, but weakening volume and flattening OBV raise concerns about a short-term drop to the bottom of the TBO Cloud before another push higher. SPX appears to be retracing to 4-hour TBO Support, and FARTCOIN has now printed three bearish divergence signals below its 4-hour TBO Resistance. Despite strong bullish trends earlier, momentum is waning. A small short produced solid returns, and with BTC looking shaky, FARTCOIN could be vulnerable to a larger move down.
Final Thoughts
The confluence of bearish divergence signals across Bitcoin, TOTAL, and many altcoins is a clear warning that a short-term correction may be underway. BTC's failure to hold above $86,000 and the sharp rise in 4-hour divergence signals point to a potential retest of lower support levels. Altcoins remain fragile and continue to overreact, following Bitcoin's lead due to the Multiple Factor Effect.
Until BTC can reclaim and close above overhead resistance with strong volume, expect volatility and downside risk to dominate the short term.
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