June 21 (Reuters) - The labels "dove" and "hawk" have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
Inflation is well down from its peak but still above the U.S. central bank's 2% goal; unemployment has ticked up but is still low by historical standards. Fed officials now see risks as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
The following chart shows officials' latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: "If the economy evolves as I am expecting, it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy sometime later this year ." June 18 , 2024
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, permanent voter: "We've got a good strong labor market. We think we've been making progress toward the price stability goal. We're asking ... is our policy stance about right? And we think yes, it's about right." June 12, 2024
Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: "If September is the right time, then it's going to be September. If it's December, that's the right time, that's going to be December. If it's February that's the right time, it'll be February." May 30, 2024
Michelle Bowman, Governor, permanent voter: "I remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed." May 17, 2024
John Williams, New York Fed President, permanent voter: "I'm not going to make a prediction about how many rate cuts...I do see a disinflationary process continuing, and I expect inflation to keep coming down the second half of this year, and next year." June 18, 2024
Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, 2024 voter: “We will learn a lot more over the next several months and I think we are well positioned from a policy standpoint to react.” June 18, 2024
Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair: "It is too early to tell whether the recent slowdown in the disinflationary process will be long-lasting." May 20, 2024
Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President: "I will need to observe a period of favorable inflation, moderating demand and expanding supply before becoming confident that a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate is appropriate. These conditions could take months, and more likely quarters to play out." June 18, 2024
Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Supervision, permanent voter: "We will need to allow our restrictive policy some further time to continue its work." May 20, 2024
Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, 2025 voter: "I am prepared to be patient." May 14, 2024
Christopher Waller, Governor, permanent voter: "In the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy." May 21, 2024.
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, 2026 voter: "We're in a very good position right now to take our time, get more inflation data, get more data on the economy, on the labor market, before we have to make any decisions.” June 16,2024
Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "Fully restoring price stability may take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy over time." March 25, 2024
Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, 2026 voter: "We're going to need to see several more months of that data to really have confidence in our outlook that we're heading to 2%." June 18, 2024
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: "I'm in a wait-and-see mode." May 9, 2024.
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter*: The May consumer price index reading was “excellent, after a few months of less-excellent numbers, so hopefully we'll see more like that.” June 18, 2024
Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: "The appropriate approach to monetary policy continues to require patience, providing time for a methodical and holistic assessment of the evolving constellation of available data.” June 18, 2024
Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: "If all of it happens to be as forecasted, I think one rate cut would be appropriate by year's end.” June 18, 2024
Notes: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July 2023. As of June 2024, seven policymakers were at the median forecast for one rate cut this year; eight policymakers thought two rate cuts this year would be appropriate; and four thought none would be. The June meeting was the last for Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who retires at the end of June; Beth Hammack, her successor, starts Aug. 21. Neither is included in this dove-hawk matrix.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
*Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will cast a vote at the July 30-31 meeting because the Cleveland Fed, on the voting roster this year, will be between presidents.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
Reporting by Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci
